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Quantum Computing Qubit Counts: 2026 Status Report

A simple guide to understanding where quantum computers are today and when they might break cryptocurrency encryption

What Are Qubits?

Think of qubits as the "bits" of quantum computers, but much more powerful and fragile:

Physical Qubits (Noisy Qubits)

The actual hardware qubits. They make errors frequently - like typing on a keyboard where 1 in 100 keys presses the wrong letter.

Logical Qubits (Error-Corrected Qubits)

Groups of physical qubits working together to create one reliable qubit. It takes hundreds or thousands of physical qubits to make one logical qubit that actually works reliably.

The Goal: To break Bitcoin or Ethereum encryption, you need about 1,600-2,600 logical qubits, which translates to roughly 2-4 million physical qubits.

Current Quantum Computing Status by Company

IBM

Roadmap

Technology: Superconducting

Physical Qubits: 156 (Heron R2)

Logical Qubits: 1-2 / 200

Target Year: 2029

Achievement: 50x faster operations. Starling system: 200 logical qubits, 100M error-corrected operations. System Two deployed.

Google

Willow Chip

Technology: Superconducting

Physical Qubits: 105 (Willow)

Logical Qubits: Below-threshold demo / 100+

Target Year: 2028-29

Achievement: First to prove error correction scales. Exponential error reduction. Completed RCS benchmark in <5min (10^25 years classical). Holy grail achieved.

IonQ

Roadmap

Technology: Trapped Ion

Physical Qubits: 64 → 256 (2026)

Logical Qubits: 0 / 1,600 (2028), 40,000-80,000 (2030)

Target Year: 2028-30

Achievement: 99.99% accuracy (world record). Most aggressive timeline to CRQC. Acquired Oxford Ionics & Skyloom. Could break Bitcoin by 2028-2030 if targets met.

Quantinuum

Website

Technology: Trapped Ion

Physical Qubits: 56 (Helios)

Logical Qubits: 12 / Tens

Target Year: 2030 (Apollo)

Achievement: Most efficient: 3 physical per 1 logical qubit. 99.921% two-qubit fidelity. All-to-all connectivity. QV >2 million. Highest quality today.

Atom Computing

Website

Technology: Neutral Atom

Physical Qubits: 1,225

Logical Qubits: Developing / 100+

Target Year: 2027-28

Achievement: Largest deployed system. Room-temperature operation. Microsoft partnership. Scaling to 100,000 atoms in coming years.

QuEra

Website

Technology: Neutral Atom

Physical Qubits: 448 (demo), 256 (commercial)

Logical Qubits: R&D / 10-100

Target Year: 2027-28

Achievement: Harvard/MIT collaboration. 448-atom architecture. Delivered to AIST Japan. Flexible 2D/3D atom arrangements.

Pasqal

Website

Technology: Neutral Atom

Physical Qubits: 1,000 → 10,000 (2026)

Logical Qubits: In dev / Scalable

Target Year: 2026-28

Achievement: Aggressive scaling: 10,000 physical qubits by 2026. European quantum leader. Focus on optimization & simulation.

Rigetti

Website

Technology: Superconducting

Physical Qubits: 84 (Ankaa-3)

Logical Qubits: In dev / 100+

Target Year: 2028-30

Achievement: 99.5% two-qubit fidelity. Modular architecture. Plans: 1,000+ physical by 2026, 100,000 logical by 2030.

PsiQuantum

Website

Technology: Photonic

Physical Qubits: Development phase

Logical Qubits: 0 / 100+

Target Year: 2027-28

Achievement: Most ambitious: 1M+ physical photonic qubits by 2027-28. Room temp. Uses semiconductor fabs. $1.3B+ funding. Moonshot bet.

Microsoft

Azure Quantum

Technology: Topological

Physical Qubits: Majorana 1 prototype

Logical Qubits: R&D phase / TBD

Target Year: Years not decades

Achievement: Most experimental. First topological materials demo. Could need fewer physical qubits if proven. Hedging with IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom partnerships.

D-Wave

Website

Technology: Quantum Annealing

Physical Qubits: 5,000+

Logical Qubits: N/A (not universal)

Target Year: Commercial now

Achievement: Only deployed commercial system. On-chip cryogenic control. Acquired Quantum Circuits Inc. Cannot break encryption - optimization only.

Oxford Ionics

Website

Technology: Trapped Ion

Physical Qubits: R&D prototypes

Logical Qubits: N/A (acquired by IonQ)

Target Year: Merged 2025

Achievement: Previous 99.99% world record holder. Electronic qubit control tech now part of IonQ stack.

Technology Type Explanations:

Superconducting

Ultra-cold circuits (colder than space). Fast gates but need extreme cooling.

Trapped Ion

Individual atoms held by lasers. Very accurate but slower operations.

Neutral Atom

Arrays of atoms in laser traps. Highly scalable, can operate warmer.

Photonic

Uses light particles. Room temperature potential, uses standard chip fabs.

Topological

Theoretical. Qubits inherently protected from errors (if it works).

Quantum Annealing

Specialized for optimization only. Not universal quantum computing.

Definitions & Terminology

TermSimple Explanation
Physical QubitsThe actual hardware qubits. Error-prone (like a keyboard where 1 in 100 keys fail).
Logical QubitsError-corrected qubits made from 100s-1000s of physical qubits working together.
Below ThresholdCritical milestone where adding MORE qubits REDUCES errors (Google Willow achieved this in 2024).
FTQC (Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing)Quantum computers that can run indefinitely without errors accumulating. The end goal.
Gate FidelityAccuracy of quantum operations. 99.99% ("four nines") is the threshold for practical error correction.
CRQCCryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer - powerful enough to break current encryption standards.
Surface CodeError correction technique arranging physical qubits in 2D grids. Each patch = 1 logical qubit.
Quantum Volume (QV)Holistic performance measure (not just qubit count - includes quality, connectivity, error rates).

Data Sources

  • Company roadmaps and official announcements (IBM, Google, IonQ, Quantinuum, etc.)
  • Nature journal publications (Google Willow, Harvard/MIT research)
  • The Quantum Insider industry analysis
  • NIST post-quantum cryptography standards (FIPS 203-205)
  • Riverlane QEC Report 2025

Last Updated: January 27, 2026